Here's an update on the front lines of feeling-based
climate change regulation. In early June
Transmission
& Distribution World conducted a poll on their website, asking just two
questions:
- Do you believe the climate is changing due to
human activity?
- Will your utility change its business strategy?
Before getting into the poll results, let's consider the
facts as we know them. Contrary to claims that storms are getting more severe
and frequent, according to actual weather data this is not the case. It feels
like this is happening, but that's mostly because of television. The Weather
Channel, CNN and other 24/7 news outlets thrive on tragedy, fear and
controversy. These attributes of TV news attract eyeballs – people watching –
to their programming and websites. They hype nearly everything to attract more
eyeballs.
When seven hurricanes hit Florida in 2004-05, the news media
connected the seven dots and predicted fire and brimstone for the ages. We were
doomed. Ten years later, low and behold, the number of hurricanes has not increased
and has even decreased in subsequent years. There is some evidence showing
intensity (wind speed) has increased modestly. However, recently I heard about
a cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere where the winds were 150 miles per hour.
The story included this factoid "We haven't seen such intense winds speed
since 1950."
Wow, 1950. Wait… 1950?
What
was the atmospheric carbon intensity in 1950? It was about 315 ppm, well below
the 350 threshold identified today as the tipping point when all hell will
break loose (current level is 400 ppm). So why focus on the intense storm in
1950?
I'll tell you why: it creates fear. The problem of
emphasizing the 1950 example is there's not a strong scientific correlation
between weather and atmospheric carbon. Furthermore, there's no record of
increased number of tornadoes or strength as carbon has increased.
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Kivalina, Alaska, with 400
indigenous Inuit inhabitants. They live in single-story cabins, and have always
been protected from the ferocious autumn and winter storms by a thick layer of
ice. But, as reported by the BBC, during the last two decades there has
been a retreat of Arctic ice, leaving the village vulnerable to coastal
erosion. The U.S government has attempted to help. A defensive wall was
built along the beach in 2008. However, it could not prevent an emergency
evacuation in 2011 following an major storm. Now, engineers predict the
7.5 mile-long barrier island will be uninhabitable by 2025.
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There is one environmental change that is noticeable: sea
level rise. The amount is small, but measured. A few millimeters. Nevertheless,
we can imagine if the planet is warming a bit and the polar caps are gradually
melting, that sea level rise is a natural outcome. That's not a good thing. It's
a red flag, and we should act. But I think we have time for reasonable, meaningful
action.
Now for the poll results. First
T&D World asked “Do
you believe the climate is changing due to human activity?”
- 21% said it's not changing and the media is
creating unnecessary alarm.
- 52% said the climate is slowly changing, but it's
ALWAYS changing, and we have plenty of time to adapt.
- 20% said the climate is changing radically due
to human activity and we're already past the tipping point.
- 8% said there's not enough data to draw a
conclusion.
And second, “Will your utility change its business
strategy?”
- 8% said no, except for coastal utilities.
- 78% said we need to update aging energy delivery
systems and increase resiliency to all threats, storms included.
- 8% said radical redesign is needed due to
increased storm ferocity.
- 6% said customers are not yet at the point where
they will accept significant rate increases to harden the grid.
The survey results say people in our industry believe something
is happening to the climate and we must act deliberately to slowly decarbonize
our energy production and delivery systems. But there’s a big caveat – we have
time.
Today we are faced with a proposed EPA rule to eliminate
coal, and expand renewable energy and energy efficiency. Sadly, the debate over
climate science – while not dead – is moot for the time being. Those in charge at
EPA have determined the time for action is now, and we must respond. Our job – as
public power utilities representing our customers – is to determine the impacts
of the proposal and – here's the hard part – develop an alternative plan to
reach reasonable goals, without creating economic havoc among our customers and
across society.
It's an awesome responsibility we must take seriously and
with determination.
